Iraq's Political Crisis: By the Institute for the Study of War

Iraq Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi faces new calls for his resignation as a rump parliament, falsely claiming to have quorum, has emerged in Iraq and begun to ouster its sitting leaders. The parliamentary remnant has voted amongst itself to dismiss Council of Representatives (CoR) Speaker Salim al-Juburi and has elected a provisional speaker, Wataniya member Adnan al-Janabi. The rump CoR remains barricaded in the Parliament building after an overnight sit in. Party discipline and cohesion is devolving, though the Kurdish Alliance, ISCI, and Badr– each of which has received benefits in the evolving cabinet reshuffle– have retained control of their members. Senior political leaders are meeting. Longtime allies Amar al-Hakim, ISCI’s leader, and Jalal Talabani, leader of the PUK, met in Suleimaniyah on April 13, presumably to discuss ISCI cooperation with the Kurdish Alliance. Rumors state that Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr is in Lebanon, as is Jawad Shahristani, the son-in-law and representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Although these leaders may be trying to stave off government collapse, they may not be able to overcome the parliamentary entropy. Street protests have reignited in advance of Friday prayers. Parliamentary means, protests, or force may topple the current government. For more analysis see: http://post.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iraq-government-collapse-likely-rump-parliament-calls-resignations

Content: Patrick Martin and ISW's Iraq team;xNLx;;xNLx;Timeline: Harleen Gambhir, Claire Coyne, and Hannah Werman

2016-02-20 23:24:26

Iraq's Deputy PM meets with Hadi al-Amiri to discuss reforms

Deputy Prime Minister Bahaa al-Araji met with Secretary General of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri to discuss the government reforms, political and security developments and how to move towards implementation.

2016-02-23 23:24:26

Abadi and Sadr discuss cabinet reshuffle

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi met with Sadrist Trend’s Muqtada al-Sadr in the Kadhimiya religious establishment in Baghdad to discuss the cabinet reshuffle, stressing the importance of “unifying speech” and “closing ranks” to overcome challenges and move the country in the right direction.

2016-02-26 23:24:26

Maliki meets PUK delegation in Baghdad

Former Prime Minister and head of the State of Law Alliance Nuri al-Maliki met with a PUK delegation in Baghdad to discuss developments between Iraq and Kurdistan. Maliki stressed the importance of PUK leader Jalal Talabani’s role in strengthening relations between political parties.

2016-02-29 23:24:26

Abadi, Masoum, and Juburi discuss reshuffle, economic crisis

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi, President Fuad Masoum, and CoR Speaker Salim al-Jubouri met in Baghdad to discuss the cabinet reshuffle, security victories, and the economic crisis.

2016-03-02 17:19:58

Hakim and Sadr discuss cross-sectarian bloc

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim met with Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr in Najaf to discuss the need for a cross-sectarian bloc representative of the majority in the CoR. Hakim emphasized the need for ministers deemed incompetent to be replaced through legal and transparent means.

2016-03-02 17:19:58

McGurk and Abadi discuss ISIS and financial support

U.S. Envoy Brett McGurk met with Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi in Baghdad to discuss next steps in Anbar and Mosul and financial support for Iraq.

2016-03-04 17:19:58

McGurk and al-Juburi meet

U.S. Special Envoy Brett McGurk met with CoR Speaker Salim al-Jubouri in Baghdad to discuss the political reform agenda and stabilizing areas that have been recaptured from ISIS.

2016-03-04 22:06:10

Al-Juburi and UN representative discuss international support

CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi met with Special Representative of the UN Secretary General Jans Kubis in Baghdad to discuss the importance of UN efforts to provide military and economic support and “community reconciliation” to Iraq.

2016-03-04 22:06:10

Al-Juburi meets with Iranian Ambassador to Iraq

CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi met with the Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Hassan Danaii in Baghdad to discuss “bilateral relations.”

2016-03-04 22:06:10

Maliki discusses CoR reforms with UN representative

Former Prime Minister and head of the State of Law Alliance Nouri al-Maliki met with Special Representative of the UN Secretary General Jans Kubis in Baghdad to discuss “inclusive” reforms in the CoR.

2016-03-05 22:06:10

McGurk meets Hakim

U.S. Special Envoy Brett McGurk met with head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) Ammar al-Hakim in Baghdad to discuss the political, security, and economic situation and the anti-ISIS process.

2016-03-06 22:06:10

Abadi meets National Alliance leaders

Prime Minister Abadi met in Karbala with leaders of the National Alliance, including National Alliance chairman and National Reform Trend leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari, National Alliance official Khadir al-Khaza’ai, Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr, ISCI leader Ammar al-Hakim, SLA senior member Ali al-Alaaq, Dawa Party Secretary General Hashem al-Hashemi, and Deputy Secretary General for the Badr Organization Karim al-Ansari. Prime Minister Abadi presented a roadmap for reform, anti-corruption measures, and a cabinet reshuffle, but the meeting failed to reach an agreement over the reform agenda.

2016-03-08 22:06:10

U.S. Ambassador meets Osama al-Nujaifi

U.S. Ambassador Stuart Jones met with Mutahidun leader Osama al-Nujaifi to discuss the government reforms, popular demonstrations, plans for the operation to recapture Mosul, and the Mosul Dam.

2016-03-08 22:06:10

Hakim and Sadr discuss cabinet reshuffle in Karbala

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim met with Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr in Karbala to discuss the cabinet reshuffle to create a government of technocrats and people outside the political blocs, stating that there was a consensus that Prime Minister Abadi would maintain his position.

2016-03-11 22:06:10

Abadi calls for technocratic cabinet

Prime Minister Abadi called for political blocs to nominate candidates for new technocratic ministers.

2016-03-13 22:06:10

Barzani meets Hadi al-Amiri

Kurdish Regional President Masoud Barzani met with Secretary-General of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri in Arbil to discuss ongoing operations against ISIS and the political situation in Iraq.

2016-03-13 22:06:10

Barzani meets al-Juburi in Arbil

Kurdish Regional President Masoud Barzani met with CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi in Arbil to discuss the security situation in the country and ongoing political reforms. The two sides stressed the need to accelerate the reform process.

2016-03-15 03:36:23

Hakim meets with Fadhila Bloc leader

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim met with Fadhila Bloc leader Hashem al-Hashemi in Baghdad to discuss the completion of reforms within a time frame and in accordance with the existing legal framework.

2016-03-15 22:06:10

McGurk meets Kurdish Vice President

U.S. Envoy Brett McGurk met with Kurdish Vice President and PUK member Kusrat Rasul Ali in Suleymaniyah, where they discussed complex issues facing the region.

2016-03-15 22:06:10

Abadi and McGurk discuss ISIS

Prime Minister Abadi met with U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq Brett McGurk in Baghdad to discuss progress in Anbar, planning for the operation to recapture Mosul, and post-ISIS stabilization in Iraq.

2016-03-17 22:06:10

Masoum and Sadr discuss reforms and sit-in

President Fuad Masoum spoke on the phone with Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr to discuss the government reforms and Sadr’s planned sit-in. The two stressed that the sit-in falls in line with democratic practices as an expression of public opinion, and that it will pressure the government to achieve reforms.

2016-03-18 22:06:10

Barzani and McGurk discuss ISIS

Kurdish President Masoud Barzani met with U.S. Special Envoy Brett McGurk in Arbil to discuss building momentum against ISIS and U.S. support to the Peshmerga fighters.

2016-03-18 22:06:10

Sadrist Sit-In Begins

Sadrist Trend supporters began a large sit-in in front of the Green Zone.

2016-03-20 22:06:10

Abadi, Masoum, and Juburi meet with blocs on reshuffle

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi, President Fuad Masoum, and CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi met with leaders of the political blocs in Baghdad to discuss the cabinet reshuffle, and decided to form three new committees to address different aspects of the reform process.

2016-03-20 22:06:10

Abadi meets with Wataniya Bloc

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi met with head of Wataniya Bloc Iyad al-Allawi in Baghdad. Al-Allawi called on Prime Minister Abadi to form a “salvation council” to oversee the political reform process, and emphasized the inclusion of Arab tribes and national reconciliation.

2016-03-22 22:06:10

ISCI calls for Abadi's resignation

The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) presented four options to Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi for moving forward with the cabinet reshuffle, calling for the resignation of Abadi from the Dawa party, the formation of an independent government, and a partial change in selection of ministers through a council of experts.

2016-03-22 22:06:10

Masoum meets Iranian official

President Fuad Masoum met with a representative from the Council on Strategic External Relations in Iran Kamal Kharazai in Baghdad to discuss common interests between Iraq and Iran.

2016-03-22 22:06:10

Wataniya bloc leader meets Iranian official

Head of Wataniya Bloc Iyad al-Allawi met with a representative from the Council on Strategic External Relations in Iran Kamal Kharazai in Baghdad to discuss creating a “comprehensive regional conference” to plan measures to promote safety and stability and to stop harmful interventions into the affairs of all sovereign countries.

2016-03-22 22:06:10

National Alliance leader meets Iranian official

Foreign Minister and leader of the National Alliance Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with a representative from the Council on Strategic External Relations in Iran Kamal Kharazai in Baghdad to discuss the international efforts to address the Iraqi political crisis.

2016-03-24 21:01:34

Abadi and Jaafari discuss reforms

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi met with Foreign Minister and head of the National Alliance Ibrahim al-Jaafari in Baghdad to discuss the need for constructive dialogue and reforms in accordance with constitutional and legal mechanisms.

2016-03-24 22:06:10

Hakim and Sadr discuss reforms

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim met with Sadrist Trend’s Muqtada al-Sadr in Najaf, where they discussed how reforms will not be resolved simply by switching ministers.

2016-03-25 21:01:34

Sadr's spokesman calls for new cabinet

Muqtada al-Sadr’s spokesman Asad al-Nasiri read a sermon in front of the Green Zone that called for a new cabinet lineup to be announced by March 26, and insisted that sit-in in the Green Zone continue to be peaceful.

2016-03-27 21:01:34

Sadr begins his own sit-in

Muqtada al-Sadr began his own sit-in in the Green Zone as his supporters continued demonstrating outside the gates.

2016-03-28 21:01:34

Wataniya and ISCI leaders meet

Former Vice President and head of Wataniya Iyad al-Allawi met with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim in Baghdad to discuss the political reforms and support in order to meet the needs of the community.

2016-03-28 21:01:34

CoR gives Abadi March 31 deadline for cabinet list

The CoR gave Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi until March 31 to submit names for a new cabinet.

2016-03-29 21:01:34

Juburi meets with Mustaqilun and SLA members about expediting ministerial changes

CoR Speaker Salim al-Jubouri met with Mustaqilun leader Hussein al-Shahristani and SLA member Khalid al-Attiyah in Baghdad to discuss expediting the process of the upcoming ministerial changes.

2016-03-29 21:01:34

Jaafari, Amiri, and Gorran member meet

Former Vice President and National Alliance leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with Secretary General of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri and the 2nd Deputy Parliament Speaker and Gorran member Aram Sheikh Mohammed in Baghdad to discuss the need for comprehensive reforms.

2016-03-29 21:01:34

Stuart Jones meets ISCI leader

U.S. Ambassador Stuart Jones met with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim in Baghdad to discuss support for security forces and strengthening bilateral relations between the U.S. and Iraq.

2016-03-29 21:01:34

Masoum meets National Alliance delegation

President Fuad Masoum met with a delegation from the National Alliance consisting of Secretary General of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri, Dawa Party member Faleh al-Fayadh, and Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) spokesman Hamid Maleh in Baghdad to discuss political developments and the ministerial amendments.

2016-03-30 23:24:26

Gorran threatens Kurdish withdrawal from CoR

Senior Gorran Party leader Hoshyar Abdullah stated that the Kurdish blocs would withdraw from the CoR if the reforms are implemented, claiming that the Kurds would be excluded from the new cabinet.

2016-03-31 23:24:26

Abadi meets Sadrist representativ, discuss cabinet

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi met with a representative of Sadrist Trend’s Muqtada al-Sadr in the Green Zone to discuss the ongoing cabinet reshuffle.

2016-04-01 23:24:26

Abadi and McGurk discuss reform and financial support

Prime Minister Abadi met with U.S. Envoy Brett McGurk to discuss reform initiatives and IMF financial support.

2016-04-01 23:24:26

Barzani meets McGurk in Arbil

Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani met with U.S. Envoy Brett McGurk in Arbil to discuss Mosul and post-ISIS planning.

2016-04-04 23:24:26

Hakim meets McGurk

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim met with U.S. Envoy Brett McGurk in Baghdad to discuss efforts to eliminate ISIS and initiatives to break political deadlock and achieve comprehensive reforms.

2016-04-04 23:24:26

Stuart Jones and Ed Royce meet Abadi to discuss reforms and financial crisis

U.S. Ambassador Stuart Jones and Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee Ed Royce met with Prime Minister Abadi in Baghdad to discuss support for reforms and challenges emanating from the financial crisis.

2016-04-04 23:24:26

Hakim and Juburi discuss reforms and financial crisis

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader Ammar al-Hakim met with CoR Speaker Salim al-Jubouri in Baghdad to discuss support for reforms and challenges from the financial crisis.

2016-04-04 23:24:26

Masoum and Hakim discuss withdrawing confidence from Abadi

President Fuad Masoum met with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq leader Ammar al-Hakim in Baghdad to discuss comprehensive reforms and the option to withdraw confidence from Prime Minister Abadi.

2016-04-04 23:24:26

Juburi meets Maliki

CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi met with Former Prime Minister and State of Law Alliance leader Nouri al-Maliki to discuss the political situation and frameworks for cooperating between all political forces to contribute to success of upcoming reforms.